As of writing this on April 12, 2026, the data referenced here is from the Texas Real Estate Research Center's March 2026 Texas Housing Insight, ManageCasa's 2026 Texas Housing analysis, JVM Lending's 2026 Forecast, and Builder Magazine's December 2025 Texas market report.
DFW: 11 Consecutive Months of Price Declines
Dallas-Fort Worth is experiencing what the Texas Real Estate Research Center is calling "the sharpest correction" among major Texas markets. The data:
Per the TRERC March 2026 Texas Housing Insight (Texas A&M University, March 2026):
- DFW price softening persisted through January 2026, marking 11 consecutive months of year-over-year price declines
- DFW-area sales fell 6.1% year-over-year in January 2026
- Active inventory across Texas reached 131,420 homes — 12.5% higher year-over-year, with DFW contributing significantly
Per ManageCasa's 2026 Texas Analysis (ManageCasa, March 2026), Redfin's median sale price for Dallas sits around $375,000, while Zillow's average home value tracks lower at $301,697 — a gap reflecting significant variation by neighborhood, property type, and submarket.
Per JVM Lending's analysis (JVM Lending, March 2026), DFW added 178,000 residents from 2023-2024 — the fourth-largest numeric gain of any metro in America. This population growth provides a long-term floor but hasn't been enough to offset the current inventory surge.
The Population Paradox
DFW is one of the fastest-growing metros in America — yet prices are declining. How?
The answer is new construction. Builder Magazine's December 2025 analysis (Builder Magazine, December 2025) notes DFW "remains the top new-home market in the U.S." — with builders flooding the market with new supply faster than population growth can absorb it. The result: buyers have options and sellers of existing homes face direct competition from brand-new construction with builder incentives and rate buydowns.
What the Numbers Mean for DFW Sellers
The JVM Lending analysis shows DFW homes are taking longer to sell and buyers are negotiating more effectively than at any point since before the pandemic. Key metrics for existing home sellers:
- 11 straight months of year-over-year price declines — with no clear bottom yet established
- New construction competing at every price point with builder incentives
- Buyers who are disciplined and data-driven — they know the market has shifted
- Properties needing work face the hardest path — renovation costs on top of current rates make "needs TLC" listings very difficult for retail buyers to underwrite
Collin County vs. Dallas County
Collin County markets (Plano, Frisco, McKinney, Allen) have generally held value better than Dallas County markets (Irving, Garland, Mesquite, Grand Prairie) due to stronger school districts and continued corporate employer presence. However, Collin County property taxes are among the highest in Texas, which has increased carrying cost pressure for existing homeowners.
Long-Term DFW Fundamentals Remain Strong
It's worth noting that despite the current correction, DFW's long-term fundamentals remain among the strongest in the nation. Builder Magazine calls it a market with "the land, infrastructure, and job base to support growth for years to come." The current softness is cyclical correction, not structural collapse — important context for sellers deciding whether to sell now or wait.
Tallbridge serves sellers across the entire DFW metroplex — Dallas, Plano, Irving, Garland, Arlington, Frisco, McKinney, and more. Get your offer here.
Sources
- Texas Real Estate Research Center — Texas Housing Insight, March 2026
- ManageCasa — Texas Housing Market 2026 Guide
- JVM Lending — Texas Real Estate Market Forecast 2026
- Builder Magazine — Texas Housing Heads into 2026, December 2025
- National Mortgage Professional — Texas Housing Market Weakens as 2026 Begins